Looking at the newspapers between Christmas and New Year, it seemed that this year’s sport in the column inches was to predict the future of the British housing market. So to go along with that these are my thoughts on the Clapham property market.
With the average 5-year fixed rate mortgage at 1.98% (down from 3.47% in 2014) and 2-year fixed rate at 1.47% (down from 2.37% in 2014), mortgage interest rates offered by lenders are at an all-time low (even with the slight increase on the Bank of England base rate a few months ago). Added to this, there has been a low unemployment rate of 5% in Clapham, which has contributed to maintain a decent level demand for property in Clapham in 2017 (interestingly – an impressive 741 Clapham properties were sold in last 12 months), whilst finally, the number of properties for sale in the town has remained limited, thus providing support for Clapham house prices, meaning …
Clapham Property Values are 1.2% lower than a year ago
However, moving into 2018, there will be greater pressures on people’s incomes as inflation starts to eat into real wage packet growth, which will wield a snowballing strain on consumer confidence. Interestingly though, information from the website Rightmove suggested over a third of property it had on its books in October and November had their asking prices reduced, the highest percentage of asking price reductions in the same time frame, over five years. Still, a lot of that could have been house-sellers being overly optimistic with their initial pricing.
In terms of what will happen to Clapham property values in the next 12 months, a lot will be contingent on the type of Brexit we have and the impact on the whole of the UK economy. A lot of people will talk about the Central London property market in the coming year, and if the banking and finance sectors are negatively affected with a poor Brexit deal, then the London market is likely to see more of an impact.
Nevertheless, the bottom line is Clapham homeowners and Clapham landlords should be aware of what happens in the rollercoaster housing market of Central London, but not panic if prices do drop suddenly in 2018. Over the last 8 years, the Central London house prices have grown by 89.6%, whilst in Clapham, they have risen by similar figure of 82.7%. So if we do see a correction in the Capital, of say 5% to 10%, it will only take us back to Clapham house prices that were being achieved only 12 to 18 months ago ... and nobody was complaining or worrying then!
Hindsight is always better than foresight and predicting anything economic is all well and good when you know what is around the corner. At least we have the Brexit divorce settlement sorted and, as the UK economy and the UK housing market are intertwined, it all depends on how we deal as a Country with the Brexit issue. However, we have been through the global financial crisis reasonably intact ... I am sure we can get through this together as well?
Oh, and house prices in Clapham over the next 12 months? I believe they will end up between 0.5% lower and 1% higher, although it will probably be a bumpy ride to get to those sorts of figures.
If you would like to read more articles on my thoughts on the Clapham property Market – please visit the Clapham Property Blog
I hope you enjoyed reading. If you are keen to take things further, be it to start from scratch, or do something a bit more interesting with your current portfolio... Start the conversation on email. I'd love to meet you in person of course at this month's Clapham Property Meet, so do come along. Click here for tickets and more info.
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